13
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 35% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 51% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% | 28% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 30% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.
67% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/52% disapprove, women 31% approve/54% disapprove.
13
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 85% | 5% | 76% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 34% | 3% | 73% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 22% | 17% |
41% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 2%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +7% for Julia Gillard. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since May last year.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.
13
Leaders at the Next Election
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
16
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 51% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 26% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also improved a little over the last month. 35% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 51% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -21 to -16 over the last 5 weeks.
68% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (down 1%) disapprove.
By gender – men 41% approve/49% disapprove, women 29% approve/53% disapprove.
16
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 83% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 5% | 76% | 4% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 12% | 20% | 27% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/31%.
19
2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
19
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
12
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.
65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.
12
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 81% | 5% | 74% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 5% | 72% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 23% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/38% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/32%.
12
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
Q. How would you rate the performance of the Opposition Leader Tony Abbott during recent visit by US President Barack Obama?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 18% | 9% | 31% | 2% |
| Total poor | 30% | 49% | 9% | 54% |
| Very good | 4% | 2% | 7% | - |
| Good | 14% | 7% | 24% | 2% |
| Average | 37% | 32% | 46% | 26% |
| Poor | 14% | 17% | 7% | 24% |
| Very poor | 16% | 32% | 2% | 30% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 10% | 13% | 17% |
Overall, the Opposition Leader’s performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama was rated negatively.
18% rated his performance during the recent visit by US President Barack Obama as good and 30% rated it poor. 37% thought it was average.
Liberal/National voters were more likely to rate it as average (46%) – only 31% rated it good.
There was little difference between the ratings of men and women.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
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