Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1042 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 33% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Q. The Government proposes to means test the private health insurance rebate, with reductions beginning for a single person earning more than $80,000 or families on $160,000. Singles earning more than $124,000 and families on more than $248,000 will not receive any of the rebate. Do you support or oppose means testing the heath insurance rebate for people on higher incomes?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Income less than $31,200 | Income $31,200-$51,999 | Income $52,000-$83,199 | Income $83,200+ | |||
| Total support | 53% | 76% | 38% | 65% | 67% | 63% | 59% | 45% | ||
| Total oppose | 33% | 13% | 51% | 19% | 17% | 23% | 28% | 46% | ||
| Strongly support | 22% | 46% | 8% | 22% | 33% | 23% | 23% | 21% | ||
| Support | 31% | 30% | 30% | 43% | 34% | 40% | 36% | 24% | ||
| Oppose | 15% | 9% | 21% | 13% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 19% | ||
| Strongly oppose | 18% | 4% | 30% | 6% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 27% | ||
| Don’t know | 14% | 11% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 15% | 12% | 10% |
The majority of respondents support the means test on the private health insurance rebate for people on higher incomes (53%), with 33% opposed to the reform.
Those on low incomes of less than $31,200 per annum are the most likely to be in favour of the reform, with 67% supporting the means test. Conversely, those on higher incomes (earning $83,200+ per annum) are the most likely to oppose the means test, with 46% against it and 45% in favour of it.
Looking at the results by voting intention, those most likely to be against the reform are Coalition voters with the majority opposing the means test (51%), whilst Labor voters are the most likely to be in favour of it (76%). Greens voters trail 11 points behind Labor in favour of the reform at 65%.
20
Opinion of NBN
Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network (NBN)?
| 27 Sep 2010 | 14 Feb 2011 | 18 Apr 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Total in favour | 56% | 48% | 54% | 56% | 80% | 42% | 77% | |
| Total oppose | 18% | 31% | 28% | 25% | 8% | 43% | 8% | |
| Strongly favour | 27% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 39% | 10% | 28% | |
| Favour | 29% | 29% | 32% | 36% | 41% | 32% | 49% | |
| Oppose | 12% | 16% | 13% | 15% | 7% | 24% | 8% | |
| Strongly oppose | 6% | 15% | 15% | 10% | 1% | 19% | 0% | |
| Don’t know | 26% | 22% | 18% | 19% | 13% | 15% | 16% |
The results of this week’s poll show that support for the NBN has increased over the course of the last 12 months, returning to 56% (the same level in September 2010).
Since the question was last polled, support for the NBN has risen 2 percentage points to 56% (+2%) and opposition has declined to 25% (-3%).
There is overwhelming majority support from Labor (80%) and Greens (77%) voters, whilst Coalition voters are almost equally divided on the issue: 42% in favour and 43% opposed.
Looking at the results by age, those respondents aged between 55-64 are the most likely to oppose the NBN, though the majority still favour the planned network: 52%/34%.
Q. How important are the following industries for providing jobs for Australians into the future?
| Very important | Quite important | Somewhat important | Not very important | Don’t know | |
| Mining | 64% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 3% |
| Construction | 58% | 30% | 9% | 0% | 2% |
| Manufacturing | 55% | 29% | 12% | 2% | 2% |
| Tourism | 53% | 33% | 11% | 1% | 2% |
| Retail | 47% | 35% | 13% | 2% | 2% |
| Hospitality | 46% | 38% | 12% | 1% | 3% |
| Finance | 39% | 38% | 18% | 3% | 3% |
| Telecommunications | 39% | 37% | 18% | 3% | 3% |
Respondents regard the mining (64%), construction (58%) and manufacturing (55%) industries to be the most important for providing jobs for Australians in the future.
This was followed closely by the tourism (53%), retail (47%) and hospitality (46%) industries.
The finance (39%) and telecommunications (39%) industries are the most likely to be seen as only ‘somewhat important’ (18%) for providing jobs.
20
Opinion of Mining Tax
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?
| 12 Jul 2010 | 5 Sep 2011 | 21 Nov 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 50% | 46% | 51% | 55% | 80% | 39% | 74% |
| Total disapprove | 28% | 34% | 33% | 28% | 7% | 46% | 12% |
| Strongly approve | 13% | 18% | 18% | 23% | 46% | 7% | 44% |
| Approve | 37% | 28% | 33% | 32% | 34% | 32% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 18% | 18% | 20% | 17% | 6% | 26% | 9% |
| Strongly disapprove | 10% | 16% | 13% | 11% | 1% | 20% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 19% | 15% | 17% | 13% | 14% | 14% |
Approval for the proposed mining tax has increased over the course of the last 6 months, rising 9 percentage points from 46% in September 2011 to 55% total approval in this week’s poll.
Labor voters are the most in favour of the proposed mining tax, with 80% in favour, followed by Greens voters (74% in favour). The majority of Coalition voters remain opposed to the proposed tax, with 46% opposed and 39% in favour.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,906 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
13
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.
13
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 35% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 51% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% | 28% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 30% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.
67% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/52% disapprove, women 31% approve/54% disapprove.
13
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 85% | 5% | 76% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 34% | 3% | 73% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 22% | 17% |
41% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 2%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +7% for Julia Gillard. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since May last year.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.
Q. Gina Rinehart (mining company owner and Australia’s wealthiest person) has recently bought a major stake in Fairfax newspapers (publishers of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age). Do you think this will make Fairfax newspapers reporting of politics and business more balanced and independent, less balanced and independent or will It make no difference?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | NSW | Victoria | |
| More balanced and independent | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 11% | 5% |
| Less balanced and independent | 31% | 35% | 22% | 62% | 33% | 31% |
| Make no difference | 44% | 36% | 55% | 23% | 38% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 22% | 15% | 9% | 18% | 18% |
44% think that Gina Rinehart’s purchase of a major stake in Fairfax will make no difference to the balance and independence of the newspapers. 31% think this will make the newspapers less balanced and independent and only 7% think the newspapers will become more balanced and independent.
Greens voters (62%) and respondents aged under 35 (37%) were most likely to think the newspapers will become less balanced and independent and Liberal/National voters least likely (22%).
Q. Do you think the Government should have more or less control of media ownership in Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | NSW | Victoria | |
| Should have more control | 24% | 29% | 17% | 38% | 28% | 22% |
| Should have less control | 24% | 17% | 30% | 30% | 23% | 29% |
| Has about the right control now | 34% | 38% | 38% | 18% | 34% | 34% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 16% | 15% | 14% | 16% | 16% |
Respondents were evenly divided over whether the Government should have more or less control of media ownership in Australia. 24% think they should have more control and 24% think they should have less – and 34% think they have about the right control.
Greens voters (38%) and Labor voters (29%) are more likely to think the Government should have more control and 30% of Liberal/National voters think they should have less control.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
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