19
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
Q. How do you think the Australian economy is performing in comparison to other developed countries?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 73% | 84% | 72% | 80% |
| Total worse | 7% | 3% | 8% | 1% |
| A lot better | 27% | 44% | 19% | 32% |
| A little better | 46% | 40% | 53% | 48% |
| About the same | 16% | 13% | 16% | 12% |
| A little worse | 5% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| A lot worse | 2% | 1% | 3% | - |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
If ‘a lot better’ or ‘a little better’ –
Q. How much credit do the following deserve for the current performance of Australia’s economy?
| A lot | Some | A little | None | Don’t know | |
| The Federal Labor Government | 18% | 31% | 23% | 21% | 6% |
| The previous Coalition Government | 21% | 31% | 26% | 15% | 6% |
| The booming resources sector | 47% | 31% | 12% | 3% | 7% |
| The Reserve Bank | 6% | 42% | 29% | 13% | 9% |
73% think that the Australian economy is performing better than other developed countries and only 7% think it is performing worse.
Respondents give most credit for the performance of the economy to the booming resources sector (78% a lot or some credit). They give similar credit to the Labor Government (49%) and the previous Coalition Government (52%).
19
Federal Election
Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 32% | 24% | 42% | 26% |
| No | 42% | 55% | 37% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 21% | 21% | 23% |
Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.
12
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.
65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.
5
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 89% | 20% | 73% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 7% | 74% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 11% |
47% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term trough to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is almost exactly the reverse of the results when this question was previously asked in September when 48% thought an election should be held now and 40% thought the Government should run its full term.
Support for the Government to run its full term has increased among Labor voters (from 82% to 89%) and Liberal/National voters (11% to 20%) but dropped from 80% to 73% for Greens voters.
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 27% | 45% | 2% | 25% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 34% | 36% | 5% | 25% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 31% | 34% | 6% | 29% |
| Protecting the environment | 16% | 23% | 37% | 24% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 38% | 34% | 5% | 23% |
| Political leadership | 23% | 40% | 5% | 33% |
| Addressing climate change | 19% | 25% | 31% | 25% |
| Controlling interest rates | 24% | 42% | 2% | 32% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 32% | 35% | 4% | 29% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 18% | 30% | 24% | 29% |
| Housing affordability | 23% | 33% | 5% | 38% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 28% | 37% | 4% | 31% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 21% | 40% | 3% | 35% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 17% | 36% | 12% | 35% |
| Managing population growth | 18% | 35% | 9% | 39% |
Labor does not have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party on any item measured. The 9% lead it had in June on “a fair industrial relations system” has been reduced to 4%. There is also little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.
Overall, there has been a slight weakening of Labor’s position since June.
Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –
| 25 Oct 2010 | 21 Mar 2011 | 29 Aug 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan | 10% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
| Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan | 30% | 30% | 26% | 22% | 21% | 29% | 11% |
| Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan | 47% | 56% | 64% | 64% | 66% | 57% | 76% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 9% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
64% (no change) think Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 22% (down 4%) think we should maintain troop numbers and 3% (down 1%) think we should increase them.
Since October last year, support for withdrawal of Australian troops has increased from 47% to 64%. There was majority support for withdrawal by all voting groups – 57% of Lib/Nat voters, 66% Labor and 76% Greens. Support for withdrawal was also similar across age groups but women were more likely than men to support withdrawal of troops (72% to 55%).
21
Mining Tax
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?
| 12 Jul 2010 | 5 Sep 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 50% | 46% | 51% | 74% | 32% | 85% |
| Total disapprove | 28% | 34% | 33% | 13% | 55% | 7% |
| Strongly approve | 13% | 18% | 18% | 32% | 5% | 51% |
| Approve | 37% | 28% | 33% | 42% | 27% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 18% | 18% | 20% | 11% | 30% | 7% |
| Strongly disapprove | 10% | 16% | 13% | 2% | 25% | - |
| Don’t know | 22% | 19% | 15% | 12% | 12% | 9% |
51% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 33% disapprove. This represents a strengthening in support since this question was asked in September (from net +12% to net +18%).
Labor voters (74%) and Greens voters (85%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 32%.
21
Carbon Tax
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s carbon pricing scheme which, from July 2012, will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 18 April | 23 May | 14 June | 18 July | 1 Aug | 19 Sep | 17 Oct | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 66% | 13% | 86% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 44% | 49% | 49% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 53% | 26% | 80% | 11% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 15% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 28% | 1% | 48% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 27% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 24% | 38% | 12% | 38% |
| Oppose | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 17% | 11% | 22% | 5% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 34% | 29% | 30% | 33% | 32% | 35% | 36% | 36% | 15% | 58% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 12% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 7% | 2% |
Views on the carbon pricing scheme have changed very little since June and there has been no significant change since the legislation was passed. 38% support the scheme (down 1% since October) and 53% oppose (no change).
The only demographic group to support the scheme were aged under 35’s – 45% support/40% oppose. Among those aged 55+, 37% support and 59% oppose.
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
| 31 May 10 | 12 July 10 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total likely | 58% | 56% | 51% | 75% | 33% | 78% |
| Total unlikely | 21% | 24% | 27% | 13% | 44% | 11% |
| Very likely | 28% | 26% | 22% | 45% | 4% | 41% |
| Quite likely | 30% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 29% | 37% |
| Not very likely | 18% | 18% | 19% | 9% | 31% | 8% |
| Not at all likely | 3% | 6% | 8% | 4% | 13% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 20% | 22% | 11% | 23% | 11% |
Respondents were less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked last year. 51% (down 5%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.
75% of Labor voters and 78% of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 33% likely to 44% unlikely.
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
| 31 May 10 | 12 July 10 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very concerned | 28% | 29% | 26% | 53% | 4% | 54% |
| Quite concerned | 17% | 19% | 15% | 22% | 11% | 15% |
| A little concerned | 20% | 16% | 20% | 12% | 24% | 21% |
| Not concerned | 24% | 25% | 27% | 6% | 52% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
Respondents were also less concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 41% (down 7%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 47% (up 6%) were only a little or not concerned.
75% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters would be concerned. 76% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 15% concerned. Those most concerned were aged 25-34 (47%) and aged 45-54 (48%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
56+/- 0
Subscribe Now
Subscribe to receive the Essential Report
in your email each week
Search the Essential Report
Categories
Essential Tags
Comments
- Chhoun Taing on Australia’s Best Prime Minister
- A Smarter Way To Police Pokies | Charters Towers E-village on Pokies Legislation
- One more promise to break « essentialvision.com.au on Return to Surplus
- Green-baiting and the art of product differentiation « essentialvision.com.au on Opinion of NBN
- Green-baiting and the art of product differentiation « essentialvision.com.au on Importance of Climate Change Issue