13
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.
13
Leaders at the Next Election
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 28% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 12% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 16% | 49% | 3% | 13% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 17% | 37% | 2% | 15% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).
Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).
19
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Greens | 42% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 7% | 26% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 11% |
| The Liberal Party | 33% | 27% | 27% | 30% | 4% | 23% | 34% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| The Labor Party | 21% | 47% | 16% | 53% | 2% | 14% | 22% | 33% | 21% | 8% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| The Greens | 33% | 29% | 41% | 16% | 23% | 45% | 70% | 3% |
| The Liberal Party | 27% | 30% | 13% | 45% | 45% | 16% | 17% | 45% |
| The Labor Party | 16% | 53% | 35% | 32% | 7% | 73% | 11% | 48% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).
Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% |
41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.
86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.
Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
| 6 Jul 09 | 14 Mar 10
|
27 April 11
|
% change | |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes | 57% | 63% | 72% | +9% |
| Divided | 30% | 36% | 66% | +30% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 44% | 48% | 61% | +13% |
| Moderate | 65% | 63% | 51% | -12% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests | 46% | n.a. | ||
| Have a vision for the future | 43% | n.a. | ||
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 62% | 54% | 40% | -14% |
| Looks after the interests of working people | 39% | n.a. | ||
| Extreme | 25% | 26% | 38% | +12% |
| Has a good team of leaders | 60% | 52% | 34% | -18% |
| Clear about what they stand for | 28% | n.a. | ||
| Keeps its promises | 44% | 33% | 20% | -13% |
The Labor Party’s main attributes were – will promise anything to win votes (63%), divided (66%) and out of touch with ordinary people (61%).
Since these questions were last asked in March 2010, all of Labor’s positive attributes have declined and the negative attributes increased. Main changes since last March were divided (up 30% to 66%), has a good team of leaders (down 18% to 34%) and understands the problems facing Australia (down 14% to 40%).
Note that the 2PP voting intention for 14 March 2010 was 56%-44% to Labor compared to the current 46%-54%.
| Labor | Liberal
|
% difference | |
| Divided | 66% | 49% | +17% |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes | 72% | 65% | +7% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 61% | 54% | +7% |
| Extreme | 38% | 36% | +2% |
| Looks after the interests of working people | 39% | 38% | +1% |
| Moderate | 51% | 55% | -4% |
| Have a vision for the future | 43% | 48% | -5% |
| Has a good team of leaders | 34% | 40% | -6% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 40% | 51% | -11% |
| Keeps its promises | 20% | 33% | -13% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests | 46% | 60% | -14% |
| Clear about what they stand for | 28% | 44% | -16% |
When these questions were last asked in March 2010, the Labor Party had significant leads over the Liberal Party on all positive attributes.
For this survey, the only attribute on which there is any significant advantage for the Labor Party is “too close to the big corporate and financial interests” (Labor 46%/Liberals 60%).
The Liberal Party is seen more favourably in terms of being divided, clear about what they stand for, keeps it promises and understands the problems facing Australia.
Q. How much difference do you think there is between the policies of the Labor Party and the Greens?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| They are completely different | 8% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| Different on most issues | 15% | 15% | 16% | 26% |
| Different of some and similar on some | 41% | 54% | 33% | 47% |
| Similar on most issues | 14% | 7% | 22% | 8% |
| They are exactly the same | 5% | 2% | 7% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 13% | 13% | 5% |
19% think the Labor and Greens policies are similar or exactly the same, 23% think they are mostly or completely different and 41% think they are different on some and the similar on some issues.
Labor voters are more likely to think they are different on some and similar on some (54%), Liberal/National voters more likely to think they are similar or the same (29%) and Greens voters more likely to think they are different (38%).
21
Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd
Q. Do you think that Julia Gillard has been a better or a worse leader than Kevin Rudd?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 28% | 47% | 13% | 30% |
| Total worse | 33% | 18% | 48% | 35% |
| A lot better | 7% | 15% | 2% | 3% |
| A little better | 21% | 32% | 11% | 27% |
| No difference | 33% | 32% | 37% | 30% |
| A little worse | 15% | 10% | 17% | 23% |
| A lot worse | 18% | 8% | 31% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 6% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
Overall, respondents were split over whether Julia Gillard has been a better or worse leader than Kevin Rudd – 28% thought she had been better, 33% worse and 33% no different.
Labor voters were more likely to think she had been better (47%/18%) while Liberal/National voters though she had been worse (13%/48%). Greens voters were split 30% better/35% worse and 30% no different.
By gender – men split 24% better/37% worse compared to women 31% better/29% worse.
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 87% | 81% | 75% | -6% |
| Hard-working | 89% | 82% | 76% | -6% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 59% | 52% | -7% |
| Arrogant | 37% | 39% | 44% | +5% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 35% | 44% | 50% | +6% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 68% | 55% | 52% | -3% |
| Visionary | 48% | 38% | 30% | -8% |
| Superficial | 51% | * | ||
| Good in a crisis | 61% | 46% | 46% | - |
| Narrow-minded | 28% | 35% | 43% | +8% |
| More honest than most politicians | 45% | 37% | 37% | - |
| Trustworthy | 49% | 42% | 40% | -2% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (76%) and intelligent (75%).
Major changes since this question was asked in October 2010 were increases of 8% for narrow-minded (to 43%) and 6% for out of touch (to 50%) and decreases for visionary (down 8% to 30%), a capable leader (down 7% to 52%), intelligent (down 6% to 75%) and hard-working (down 6% to 76%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
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