13
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.
13
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 85% | 5% | 76% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 34% | 3% | 73% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 22% | 17% |
41% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 2%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +7% for Julia Gillard. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since May last year.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.
13
Leaders at the Next Election
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
Q. Choosing from the following list, who do you think has been Australia’s best Prime Minister?
| Term of office | Total
19 Jan 2009 |
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | |
| John Curtin | 7 Oct 1941 – 5 Jul 1945 | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Ben Chifley | 13 Jul 1945 – 19 Dec 1949 | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Robert Menzies | 19 Dec 1949 – 26 Jan 1966 | 11% | 11% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 21% |
| Harold Holt | 26 Jan 1966 – 19 Dec 1967 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | - | 1% | 1% | - |
| John Gorton | 10 Jan 1968 – 10 Mar1971 | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| William McMahon | 10 Mar 1971 – 5 Dec 1972 | 1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Gough Whitlam | 5 Dec 1972 – 11 Nov 1975 | 9% | 9% | 15% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| Malcolm Fraser | 11 Nov 1975 – 11 Mar 1983 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6% | - | 3% | 6% |
| Bob Hawke | 11 Mar 1983 – 20 Dec 1991 | 12% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 12% | 21% | 10% |
| Paul Keating | 20 Dec 1991 – 11 Mar 1996 | 8% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| John Howard | 11 Mar 1996 – 3 Dec 2007 | 28% | 33% | 8% | 61% | 5% | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Kevin Rudd | 3 Dec 2007 – 24 Jun 2010 | 20% | 15% | 21% | 6% | 27% | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| Julia Gillard | 24 Jun 2010 – present | na | 3% | 8% | - | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
Note: Percentages based on those who gave an answer.
33% thought that John Howard has been Australia’s best Prime Minister, 15% chose Kevin Rudd and 15% Bob Hawke.
Among Liberal/National voters, 61% chose John Howard and 18% Robert Menzies. With 23%, Bob Hawke received the highest rating from Labor voters, just ahead of Kevin Rudd on 21% with Gough Whitlam on 15%. Greens voters favoured Kevin Rudd (27%) and Bob Hawke (22%).
While John Howard received similar scores across age groups, the 18-34 group were more likely to favour Kevin Rudd (25%), the 35-54’s Bob Hawke (21%) and the 55+ group Robert Menzies (21%). Compared to the results when this question was asked 3 years ago (when Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister), John Howard (+5%) and Bob Hawke (+3%) have improved their ratings while Kevin Rudd’s has dropped 5%.
16
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% | 37% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 52% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 27% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved a little since last month. 37% (up 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 52% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -15 over the last 5 weeks. This is the best net rating for the Prime Minister since May last year.
76% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 15% disapprove (down 4%).
By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 37% approve/47% disapprove.
16
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 83% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 5% | 76% | 4% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 12% | 20% | 27% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 41%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/31%.
19
2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
19
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
12
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has declined a little since last month. 34% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.
73% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.
12
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 81% | 5% | 74% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 5% | 72% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 23% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/38% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/32%.
12
The Past Year – Politicians
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
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