Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?
| Total Good | Total Bad | Very Good | Good | Bad | Very Bad | Don’t know | ||
| Rob Oakeshott | 23% | 34% | 3% | 20% | 16% | 18% | 42% | |
| Tony Windsor | 23% | 32% | 4% | 19% | 18% | 14% | 44% | |
| Andrew Wilkie | 24% | 34% | 3% | 21% | 16% | 18% | 42% | |
| Bob Katter | 27% | 36% | 6% | 21% | 19% | 17% | 37% |
Respondents struggle to rate the performance of the Independents, with the most common response being ‘don’t know’. However, in the case of Bob Katter, respondents are more likely to have a view, with the ‘don’t knows’ dropping 5 points from about 42% to 37% in Katter’s case.
The performance of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie are rated as more or less the same with about 23% of respondents regarding their performance as good and 33% regarding it as bad. Bob Katter came out on top by a fraction, with 27% rating his performance as good.
However, in all instances, more respondents rate the performance of the Independents as bad, with Katter also earning the most criticism (36% bad).
Ratings do not vary greatly by state or territory, save that respondents in Queensland are significantly more likely to rate the performance of Bob Katter as good (38% total good). Respondents in NSW are somewhat more likely to rate the performance of Tony Windsor as good (27% total good).
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| 7 Mar 11 | 6 Jun 2011 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 28% | 22% | 32% | 9% | 72% |
| Total bad | 41% | 39% | 50% | 30% | 76% | 7% |
| Very good | 7% | 9% | 5% | 8% | 1% | 30% |
| Good | 20% | 19% | 17% | 24% | 8% | 42% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 33% | 28% | 38% | 15% | 21% |
| Bad | 22% | 21% | 23% | 22% | 27% | 5% |
| Very bad | 19% | 18% | 27% | 8% | 49% | 2% |
The majority of respondents seem to regard the independents and the Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament as bad for Australia (50% bad), whilst 22% regard it is good for the country.
Enthusiasm for the independents and the Greens in federal Parliament fell 6 points since last polled in June 2011, from 28% to 22% of respondents regarding it as good for the country.
At the same time, disdain for the situation has risen considerably since June 2011: from 39% to 50% this time around.
Labor voters are almost equally split on the issue of the independents and Greens holding the balance of power, with 32% regarding it to be a good thing, and 30% viewing it as bad.
Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard the situation as bad (76%), whereas Greens voters are by far the most likely to regard it as good (72%).
Respondents aged 18-24 (38%) and 25-34 (33%) were significantly more likely to regard the situation as good.
6
Balance of Power
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| 7 Mar 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 28% | 40% | 11% | 77% |
| Total bad | 41% | 39% | 19% | 68% | 6% |
| Very good | 7% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 40% |
| Good | 20% | 19% | 29% | 8% | 37% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 33% | 41% | 21% | 17% |
| Bad | 22% | 21% | 13% | 33% | 5% |
| Very bad | 19% | 18% | 6% | 35% | 1% |
28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.
7
Balance of Power
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 33% | 12% | 83% |
| Total bad | 41% | 25% | 66% | 2% |
| Very good | 7% | 8% | 1% | 34% |
| Good | 20% | 25% | 11% | 49% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 41% | 22% | 15% |
| Bad | 22% | 18% | 29% | 2% |
| Very bad | 19% | 7% | 37% | - |
27% think that the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 41% think it has been bad.
Greens voters overwhelmingly think it has been good (83%) while two-thirds of Coalition voters think it has been bad. Labor voters are somewhat split – 33% good/25% bad/41% neither. Older respondents were more likely to think it was bad – those aged under 35 split 32% good/29% bad while those aged 55+ split 21% good/52% bad.
20
Independents in Parliament
Q. Do you think there should be more or fewer independents in Federal Parliament?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other | |
| Should be more | 29% | 29% | 21% | 58% | 65% |
| Should be fewer | 26% | 21% | 40% | 5% | 7% |
| About the right number | 23% | 32% | 19% | 19% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 19% | 20% | 17% | 14% |
Respondents are divided over whether there should be more or fewer independents in Parliament – 29% say more, 26% fewer and 23% think there is about the right number. 40% of Coalition voters think there should be fewer and a majority of Greens and other voters think there should be more.
Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the decisions the independents have reached about which party they will support?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote ind/other | |
| Total approve | 41% | 82% | 5% | 72% | 40% |
| Total disapprove | 45% | 6% | 89% | 14% | 34% |
| Strongly approve | 12% | 29% | * | 15% | 3% |
| Approve | 29% | 53% | 5% | 57% | 37% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 5% | 35% | 11% | 18% |
| Strongly disapprove | 25% | 1% | 54% | 3% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 12% | 5% | 14% | 27% |
Respondents were split over the independents’ decision about the party to support – 41% approve and 45% disapprove.
82% of Labor voters and 72% of Greens voters approve while 89% of Coalition voters disapprove (and 54% strongly disapprove). Voters for independents and other parties split 40% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »
13
Power of the Independents
Q. Do you think the independents will hold too much power in the next Federal Government?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote ind/other | |
| Yes | 44% | 36% | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| No | 36% | 40% | 27% | 57% | 64% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 25% | 10% | 22% | 20% |
Overall, respondents more likely to think the independents will hold too much power in the next Federal; Government – 44% agree and 36% disagree. 63% of Coalition voters agree but Labor voters are split 36% yes/40% no.
Greens voters and other voters are more likely to think the independents will not hold too much power. Comments »
All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.
However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.
Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.
This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor | 38.5% | 36.2% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Coalition | 43.5% | 43.2% | 41.5% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Greens | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Others | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor 2PP | 50.7% | 50.2% | 52% | 52 | 51% | 51% |
| Difference | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
54+/- 0
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