13
Leaders at the Next Election
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
30
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | 5 Dec 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 48% | 80% | 19% | 82% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 41% | 12% | 73% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
48% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term through to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is very similar to the results of this question when last asked in early December. Views closely follow voting voting intentions.
19
Federal Election
Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 32% | 24% | 42% | 26% |
| No | 42% | 55% | 37% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 21% | 21% | 23% |
Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.
5
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 89% | 20% | 73% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 7% | 74% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 11% |
47% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term trough to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is almost exactly the reverse of the results when this question was previously asked in September when 48% thought an election should be held now and 40% thought the Government should run its full term.
Support for the Government to run its full term has increased among Labor voters (from 82% to 89%) and Liberal/National voters (11% to 20%) but dropped from 80% to 73% for Greens voters.
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| First | Second | Third | Total | 6 June 11 | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 39% | 16% | 7% | 62% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 4% | 8% | 10% | 22% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 12% | 18% | 17% | 47% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 3% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 7% | 6% | 5% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 3% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 2% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 11% | 12% | 13% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | * | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 3% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 1% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 47% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 36% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since June, there have been only minor changes in these figures – there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+4%) and declines in the importance of addressing climate change (-5%), ensuring a quality education for all children (-4%), managing population growth (-4%) and security and the war on terrorism (-4%).
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 27% | 45% | 2% | 25% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 34% | 36% | 5% | 25% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 31% | 34% | 6% | 29% |
| Protecting the environment | 16% | 23% | 37% | 24% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 38% | 34% | 5% | 23% |
| Political leadership | 23% | 40% | 5% | 33% |
| Addressing climate change | 19% | 25% | 31% | 25% |
| Controlling interest rates | 24% | 42% | 2% | 32% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 32% | 35% | 4% | 29% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 18% | 30% | 24% | 29% |
| Housing affordability | 23% | 33% | 5% | 38% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 28% | 37% | 4% | 31% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 21% | 40% | 3% | 35% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 17% | 36% | 12% | 35% |
| Managing population growth | 18% | 35% | 9% | 39% |
Labor does not have a substantial lead over the Liberal Party on any item measured. The 9% lead it had in June on “a fair industrial relations system” has been reduced to 4%. There is also little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
The Liberal Party has maintained strong leads on management of the economy, controlling interest rates, political leadership and security and the war on terrorism.
Overall, there has been a slight weakening of Labor’s position since June.
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
| 31 May 10 | 12 July 10 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very concerned | 28% | 29% | 26% | 53% | 4% | 54% |
| Quite concerned | 17% | 19% | 15% | 22% | 11% | 15% |
| A little concerned | 20% | 16% | 20% | 12% | 24% | 21% |
| Not concerned | 24% | 25% | 27% | 6% | 52% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 11% | 11% | 7% | 9% | 4% |
Respondents were also less concerned about the re-introduction of WorkChoices than last year. 41% (down 7%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 47% (up 6%) were only a little or not concerned.
75% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters would be concerned. 76% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 15% concerned. Those most concerned were aged 25-34 (47%) and aged 45-54 (48%).
17
Repeal Carbon Tax
Q. If the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, which of the following do you think should happen:
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| The carbon tax should remain legislation to provide certainty for individuals and business | 21% | 42% | 5% | 43% |
| The carbon tax should remain legislation only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution | 33% | 36% | 29% | 41% |
| Tony Abbott should call a further special election (called a ‘double dissolution’) to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. | 34% | 10% | 57% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 8% | 4% |
34% think that if the carbon tax is passed into legislation and Tony Abbott wins the next election, he should call a further election to get the numbers in the Senate to repeal the carbon tax. 21% think that carbon tax should remain legislation and 33% think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.
42% of Labor voters and 43% of Greens voters think it should remain legislation, while 57% of Coalition voters think Tony Abbott should call another election to get the numbers to repeal it.
38% of men and 39% of those aged 55+ think Tony Abbott should call another election, while 38% of women and 40% of those aged under 35 think it should remain only if it proves to be effective in reducing carbon pollution.
5
Federal Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 82% | 11% | 80% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 9% | 84% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
40% think that the Labor Government should run its full term and 48% think there should be an election held now.
Opinions closely follow voting preference – 82% of Labor voters and 80% of Greens voters think the Government should run its full term while 84% of Liberal/National voters want an election now.
11
Voluntary Voting
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total definitely/probably vote | 82% | 85% | 89% | 78% |
| Total definitely/probably not vote | 14% | 12% | 9% | 19% |
| Would definitely vote | 59% | 62% | 65% | 61% |
| Would probably vote | 23% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote | 10% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 2068
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 46% | 46% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 34% | 34% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 53% | 53% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 47% | 47% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
56+/- 0
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