Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 36% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 41% | 45% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 5% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.
Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.
Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 87% | 81% | 75% | 73% | -2% |
| Hard-working | 89% | 82% | 76% | 75% | -1% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 59% | 52% | 42% | -10% |
| Arrogant | 37% | 39% | 44% | 48% | +4% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 35% | 44% | 50% | 60% | +10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 68% | 55% | 52% | 44% | -8% |
| Visionary | 48% | 38% | 30% | 26% | -4% |
| Superficial | 51% | 52% | +1% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 61% | 46% | 46% | 41% | -5% |
| Narrow-minded | 28% | 35% | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 45% | 37% | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Trustworthy | 49% | 42% | 40% | 30% | -10% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (73%) and out of touch with ordinary people (60%).
Major changes since this question was asked in February were an increase of 10% for out of touch (to 60%) and decreases for a capable leader (down 10% to 42%) and trustworthy (down 10% to 30%).
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 70% | 71% | 64% | 61% | -3% |
| Hard-working | 76% | 78% | 72% | 75% | +3% |
| A capable leader | 47% | 52% | 48% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 59% | 60% | 58% | 60% | +2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 57% | 53% | 54% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 50% | 53% | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Visionary | 32% | 31% | 27% | 27% | - |
| Superficial | 45% | 49% | +4% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 40% | 42% | 41% | 40% | -1% |
| Narrow-minded | 56% | 53% | 51% | 54% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 33% | 32% | 31% | 32% | +1% |
| Trustworthy | 33% | 35% | 34% | 32% | -2% |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (61%) and arrogant (60%).
There have only been minor changes since this question was asked in February.
| Julia Gillard | Tony Abbott | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 73% | 61% | +12% |
| Hard-working | 75% | 75% | - |
| A capable leader | 42% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 48% | 60% | -12% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 60% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 44% | 48% | -4% |
| Visionary | 26% | 27% | -1% |
| Superficial | 52% | 49% | +3% |
| Good in a crisis | 41% | 40% | +1% |
| Narrow-minded | 46% | 54% | -8% |
| More honest than most politicians | 29% | 32% | -3% |
| Trustworthy | 30% | 32% | -2% |
Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 23% | 51% | 10% | 26% |
| Kevin Rudd | 32% | 31% | 31% | 31% |
| Wayne Swan | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Greg Combet | 4% | 5% | 3% | 6% |
| Bill Shorten | 3% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Someone else | 19% | 5% | 31% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 5% | 18% | 19% |
32% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 23% prefer Julia Gillard. Julia Gillard is preferred by 51% of Labor voters compared to 31% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 34% to 21% and women by 30% to 25%.
18
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% |
45% approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove – showing no change from last months ratings.
89% of Labor voters approve and 3% disapprove.
By gender – men 45% approve/41% disapprove, women 45% approve/35% disapprove. Comments »
18
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% | 45% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% |
39% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 45% (up 8%) disapprove – a shift from a net rating of +6% to -6%.
74% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (up 6%) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/47% disapprove, women 37% approve/41% disapprove. Comments »
20
Opinion of Julia Gillard
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 21% | 42% | 8% | 22% | 19% | |
| Total gone down | 40% | 13% | 67% | 28% | 42% | |
| Gone up a lot | 6% | 16% | * | 3% | 6% | |
| Gone up a little | 15% | 26% | 8% | 19% | 13% | |
| Stayed the same | 35% | 44% | 23% | 48% | 32% | |
| Gone down a little | 18% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 20% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 1% | 41% | 13% | 22% | |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.
This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.
By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »
20
Opinion of Tony Abbott
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 26% | 6% | 55% | 5% | 27% | |
| Total gone down | 37% | 61% | 9% | 57% | 27% | |
| Gone up a lot | 8% | 1% | 18% | - | 8% | |
| Gone up a little | 18% | 5% | 37% | 5% | 19% | |
| Stayed the same | 34% | 32% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| Gone down a little | 15% | 22% | 7% | 19% | 11% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 39% | 2% | 38% | 16% | |
| Don’t know | 3% | 1% | * | 1% | 8% |
26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.
This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.
By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »
16
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||
| 29 Mar | 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | |
| Total approve | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
| Total disapprove | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% |
| Strongly approve | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% |
| Approve | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% |
46% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 40% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 1% and disapproval is unchanged. 91% of Labor voters approve and only 3% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 13% approve and 79% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/46% disapprove and women 48% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||
| 29 Mar | 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | |
| Total approve | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% |
| Strongly approve | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% |
| Approve | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% |
| Disapprove | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% |
45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 40% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval increased by 2%. 87% of Labor voters approve and only 5% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 14% approve and 77% disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/45% disapprove and women 47% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
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