Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2,106 sample size

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »

Q. After the election neither the Labor Party nor the Coalition has a majority in the House of Representatives – they need the support of independents to govern. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?

42% believe that a minority Government supported by the independents will result in a worse Government for Australia and 30% think it will be a better Government. Liberal/National voters are more likely to think it would be a worse Government (62%) while 47% of Greens voters think it would be a better Government. Labor voters are split – 37% better/33% worse.

Older voters are most likely to think it would be a worse Government – of those aged 55+, 47% say worse and 28% better. Comments »

Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?

70% of respondents think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and only 16% think it is unlikely.

A majority of all voters types believe it is likely. Comments »

Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?

52% think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 33% disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (65%) although all voter types are more likely to support another election than oppose it.  Women (yes 53%/no 29%) are more likely to support another election than men (50%/38%). Comments »

Q. And if Australia had another Federal election in the next 12 months, which party do you expect would win that election?

Expectations about which party would win another election are divided – and closely follow party preferences. 39% think the Coalition would win and 35% think Labor would win. Comments »

Q. If another election was held in the next 12 months would you vote for the same party or might you change your vote?

72% say they would vote for the same party if another election was held and 17% think they may change their vote. Liberal/National voters are least likely to change their vote (13%), while Greens voters are most likely (29%). 22% of voters aged under 35 said they may change their vote compared to only 13% of those aged 55+. Comments »

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

2246 sample size

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* These results do not include the special ER pre-election poll. Comments »

Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in last week’s Federal election?

More than half the respondents had decided their vote more than 4 weeks before the election. 27% decided during the election campaign before polling day and 14% only decided on polling day (9% when they got to the polling booth). Greens voters were most likely to delay making their decision, with 21% saying they only decided on the day of the election. 25% of those who voted for independents or other parties only decided when they got to the polling booth.

Older voters decided earlier than younger voters – 67% of those aged 55+ decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 43% of under 35’s. 19% of under 35’s decided on the day of the election compared to only 6% of aged 55+. Comments »

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

46% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to previous poll.

Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 83% to 3% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 66% to 8%.

Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/41% and women 48%/32%. Comments »

All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.

However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.

Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.

This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.