All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.
However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.
Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.
This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor | 38.5% | 36.2% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Coalition | 43.5% | 43.2% | 41.5% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Greens | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Others | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor 2PP | 50.7% | 50.2% | 52% | 52 | 51% | 51% |
| Difference | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
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Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
54+/- 0
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