Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
1,747 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 34% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 37% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 37% | 39% | 38% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 46% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| Greens | 8% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 56% | 54% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
26
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 29 Mar 10 | 31 May 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 71% | 62% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| Total disapprove | 21% | 29% | 23% | 32% | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% |
| Strongly approve | 21% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% |
| Approve | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% |
| Disapprove | 14% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% |
| Strongly disapprove | 7% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% |
49% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 33% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 3% and disapproval increased by 3%. 94% of Labor voters approve and only 2% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 18% approve and 70% disapprove.
By gender – men 51% approve/36% disapprove and women 49% approve/30% disapprove. Comments »
26
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Malcolm Turnbull | Tony Abbott | ||||||||||
| 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 25% | 34% | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 55% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 39% | 47% | 44% | 46% |
| Strongly approve | 2% | 7% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 23% | 27% | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 33% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 31% | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 19% |
35% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 46% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 5% and disapproval increased by 2%. 78% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 15% approve and 74% disapprove.
There were no substantial differences by gender – men 37% approve/48% disapprove and women 33% approve/44% disapprove. Comments »
26
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 94% | 9% | 74% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 2% | 69% | 6% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 20% | 23% |
51% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 26% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight widening of the gap between the two (from 23% to 25%) since polled last week.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 69% to 9% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 6%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 50%/29% and women 51%/23%. Comments »
Q. On Sunday night the leaders debate between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will be televised. Do you plan to watch the leaders’ debate?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| Definitely watch | 14% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 3% | 4% |
| Probably watch | 30% | 35% | 33% | 31% | 24% | 13% |
| Probably won’t watch | 21% | 20% | 23% | 29% | 25% | 13% |
| Definitely won’t watch | 26% | 16% | 25% | 25% | 44% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 25% |
44% said they would definitely or probably watch the leaders’ debate. 54% of Labor voters were likely to watch, compared to 49% of Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters. Of those who could not say who they would vote for, only 17% said they would definitely or probably watch the debate.
Older respondents were more likely to watch – 52% of those aged 55+ compared to 33% of those aged under 35. Comments »
26
Interest in Federal Election
Q. How interested are you in this federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| More than previous elections | 17% | 18% | 23% | 15% | 16% | 5% |
| About the same | 66% | 76% | 68% | 67% | 52% | 42% |
| Less than previous elections | 11% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 32% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 5% | 1% | * | 4% | - | 31% |
66% said that they had about the same interest in this election as previous elections – 17% had more interest and 11% less interest. Liberal voters were more interested (23% more) than Labor (18% more) and Greens voters (15% more).
Women (19%more/9% less) were somewhat more interested than men (16% more/13% less). Comments »
26
Voting Decision
Q. When do you think you will make your decision about which party to vote for?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| Already decided | 51% | 61% | 65% | 53% | 32% | 3% |
| Over the next few weeks during the campaign | 23% | 26% | 22% | 24% | 23% | 18% |
| At the end of the campaign before election day | 9% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 14% |
| On election day | 10% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 26% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 36% |
| Total | Aged
18-34 |
Aged
35-44 |
Aged
45-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Already decided | 51% | 38% | 44% | 53% | 66% |
| Over the next few weeks during the campaign | 23% | 28% | 25% | 20% | 18% |
| At the end of the campaign before election day | 9% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| On election day | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
51% of respondents said they had already decided which party to vote for and a further 32% said they would decide before election day – 10% will make their decision on election day. 61% of Labor voters and 65% of Liberal voters say they have already decided compared to 53% of Greens voters.
Younger voters are less likely to have decided which party to vote for – only 38% of under 35’s have already decided, 36% will decide before election day, 10% on election day and 16% do not know when they will decide. Comments »
26
Best Leader of Liberal Party
Q. Do you think that if Peter Costello had stayed in Parliament, he would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 45% | 46% | 50% | 64% |
| No | 26% | 32% | 25% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 22% | 25% | 17% |
45% of respondents think Peter Costello (had he stayed in parliament) would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott. Preference for Peter Costello was strongest among Liberal/National voters – 50% Costello/25% Abbott. The highest level of support for Tony Abbott came from Labor voters (32%). Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
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