Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,847
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% | |
| National | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 31% | 32% | 30% | 32% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 57% | 56% | 57% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 43% | 44% | 43% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
12
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% | 29% | 35% | 28% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 62% | 55% | 64% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 24% | 29% | 23% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 30% | 24% | 28% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 32% | 31% | 36% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
After improving last month Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped back to a level similar to the July result. 28% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 64% (up 9%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -36 over the last 4 weeks.
66% of Labor voters approve (down 11%) and 26% disapprove (up 13%).
By gender – men 29% approve/65% disapprove, women 27% approve/62% disapprove.
12
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% | 29% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | 25% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 11% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has been at a similar level for the past 4 months. 39% (up 2%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (no change) disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -11 over the last 4 weeks.
74% (up 2%) of Coalition voters approve and 18% (down 2%) disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/52% disapprove, women 36% approve/48% disapprove.
12
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | 15 Aug | 12 Sept | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 38% | 36% | 81% | 5% | 69% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 36% | 40% | 5% | 79% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 26% | 24% | 13% | 16% | 23% |
36% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 40% prefer Tony Abbott – a net improvement for Tony Abbott of 6% on last month’s figures (from -2% to +4%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 43%/37% and women favour Tony Abbott 37%/36%.
12
Processing Asylum Seekers
Q. Thinking about the issue of asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat – do you think they should be processed in Australia or should they be sent to another country for processing?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Process in Australia | 36% | 44% | 27% | 73% |
| Sent to another country | 53% | 44% | 65% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 12% | 8% | 12% |
53% favour sending asylum seekers to another country for processing and 36% favour processing them in Australia. Liberal/National voters strongly favour sending them to another country (65%), Greens voters strongly favour processing them in Australia (73%) and Labor voters are split (44%/44%).
Respondents aged under 35 are split (43% Australia/41% another country) but older respondents strongly favour processing overseas (aged 55+ = 62% another country/32% Australia).
12
Pokies Legislation
Q. The Federal Government has proposed gambling reforms which include “pre-commitment” technology that will require pokie players to have a card registered to their name and pre-programmed to prevent them losing more than a set amount in a 24-hour period. Do you support or oppose this measure?
| 18 Apr | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 65% | 67% | 80% | 59% | 78% |
| Total oppose | 21% | 25% | 15% | 34% | 9% |
| Strongly support | 32% | 34% | 44% | 27% | 43% |
| Support | 33% | 33% | 36% | 32% | 35% |
| Oppose | 12% | 13% | 9% | 18% | 7% |
| Strongly oppose | 9% | 12% | 6% | 16% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
The strong support for the Government’s “pokies” legislation has changed little since this question was last asked in April. 67% support (up 2%) and 21% oppose (up 4%) the proposal.
Voters of all parties support the proposed legislation – although support from Liberal/National voters was somewhat lower at 59%.
Support is strongest from younger respondents – 73% of those aged under 35 support the proposal compared to 66% of those aged 35-54 and 61% of those aged 55+.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
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