Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 46% | 45% | 46% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 49% | 49% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 32% | 31% | 32% | 31% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 56% | 56% | 55% | 56% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | 28 March | 18 April | 23 May | 30 May | 14 June | 11 July | 18 July | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 39% | 39% | 77% | 12% | 82% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 49% | 51% | 14% | 83% | 11% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 15% | 15% | 33% | 2% | 42% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 24% | 24% | 44% | 10% | 40% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 16% | 19% | 9% | 26% | 6% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 34% | 33% | 32% | 5% | 57% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 7% |
Opinions of the Government’s carbon pricing scheme have changed little the last time this was surveyed two weeks ago. 39% support (no change) and 51% oppose (down 2%).
82% of Greens voters and 77% of Labor voters support the scheme and 83% of Liberal/National voters oppose.
Those aged under 35 are more likely to support the scheme (46% support/39% oppose) and those aged over 55 oppose (36% support/57% oppose).
Q. How important is the issue of the carbon pricing scheme in deciding which party you would vote for?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very important | 30% | 25% | 39% | 33% |
| Somewhat important | 29% | 28% | 31% | 35% |
| A little important | 21% | 25% | 16% | 18% |
| Not at all important | 13% | 18% | 12% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 3% | 2% | 6% |
30% say that the carbon pricing scheme is very important to their voting decision and 29% say it is somewhat important. Liberal/National voters are more likely to consider it very important (39%).
The carbon pricing issue is more important to those who are opposed than those who support it. 68% of those who oppose the scheme say it is very/somewhat important compared to 58% of those who support it.
Q. What do you think Tony Abbott actually believes about climate change?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Does not believe in climate change | 19% | 28% | 14% | 34% |
| Does believe in climate change | 27% | 13% | 46% | 8% |
| Doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not | 31% | 48% | 17% | 42% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 11% | 22% | 16% |
31% of respondents think that Tony Abbott doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not, 27% think he believes in climate change and 19% think he doesn’t.
46% of Liberal/National voters think he believes in climate change compared to only 13% of Labor voters and 8% of Greens voters. 34% of Greens voters think he does not believe in climate change and 48% of Labor voters think he doesn’t care whether climate change is real or not.
Q. The Government has recently made an agreement to send asylum seekers arriving by boat in Australia to Malaysia for processing, and in return Australia will take a fixed number of refugees from Malaysia. Do you support or oppose this agreement?
| 16 June 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 40% | 31% | 50% | 25% | 19% |
| Total oppose | 39% | 53% | 31% | 67% | 60% |
| Strongly support | 13% | 6% | 9% | 4% | 3% |
| Support | 27% | 25% | 41% | 21% | 16% |
| Oppose | 22% | 23% | 17% | 24% | 35% |
| Strongly oppose | 17% | 30% | 14% | 43% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 21% |
31% support the agreement to send asylum seekers to Malaysia for processing and 53% oppose. This represents a significant increase in opposition to this scheme from that recorded 6 weeks ago – support is down 9% and opposition up 14%.
This shift is mainly due to changed opinions of Liberal/National voters. Support from Labor voters is up 3% to 50% while opposition from Liberal/National voters has increased by 22% to 67%. Opposition from Greens voters has also increased by 9% to 60%.
Q. Thinking about your personal information that you sometimes have to give to organisations and companies, how much trust do you have in following organisations to handle your personal information appropriately?
| A lot of trust | Some trust | Little trust | No trust | Don’t know | |
| The medical profession | 39% | 40% | 12% | 7% | 2% |
| Banks | 19% | 40% | 27% | 13% | 2% |
| Governments | 12% | 38% | 28% | 20% | 2% |
| Australian companies | 6% | 43% | 35% | 13% | 2% |
| On-line companies | 2% | 25% | 41% | 29% | 3% |
| Political parties | 2% | 20% | 34% | 40% | 4% |
| Foreign companies | 1% | 18% | 36% | 41% | 4% |
| The media | 2% | 14% | 35% | 47% | 2% |
Of the organisations measured, the medical profession is the most trusted to handle personal information (79% a lot/some trust). Banks (59%) are trusted more that Governments (50%) or Australian companies (49%).
The media are the least trusted with 82% saying they have little or no trust in them.
People aged under 35 tend to be more trustful with their personal information – especially with Governments (58% a lot/some trust), banks (69%) and on-line companies (35%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 05 March 12
56+/- 0
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