Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2246 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 37% | 37% | 41% | 42% | 41% |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 39% | 44% | 45% | 44% |
| Labor | 42% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 47% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Labor | 53% | 54% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* These results do not include the special ER pre-election poll. Comments »
31
When Voting Decision Made
Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in last week’s Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| More than 4 weeks before the election | 55% | 60% | 65% | 38% |
| 2-4 weeks before the election | 15% | 15% | 16% | 19% |
| In the last week before the election | 9% | 8% | 9% | 15% |
| The day before the election | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% |
| The day of the election but before I went to vote | 5% | 4% | 4% | 9% |
| When I got to the polling booth | 9% | 6% | 4% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
More than half the respondents had decided their vote more than 4 weeks before the election. 27% decided during the election campaign before polling day and 14% only decided on polling day (9% when they got to the polling booth). Greens voters were most likely to delay making their decision, with 21% saying they only decided on the day of the election. 25% of those who voted for independents or other parties only decided when they got to the polling booth.
Older voters decided earlier than younger voters – 67% of those aged 55+ decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 43% of under 35’s. 19% of under 35’s decided on the day of the election compared to only 6% of aged 55+. Comments »
31
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Ag 10 | 30 Aug | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10 | ||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 94% | 3% | 66% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 1% | 83% | 8% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 4% | 14% | 26% | 23% |
46% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to previous poll.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 83% to 3% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 66% to 8%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/41% and women 48%/32%. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
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