Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2,106 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 37% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
6
Minority Government
Q. After the election neither the Labor Party nor the Coalition has a majority in the House of Representatives – they need the support of independents to govern. Do you think this will result in a better or worse Government for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 30% | 37% | 19% | 47% |
| Total worse | 42% | 33% | 62% | 30% |
| A lot better | 8% | 10% | 3% | 12% |
| A little better | 22% | 27% | 16% | 35% |
| A little worse | 22% | 19% | 28% | 23% |
| A lot worse | 20% | 14% | 34% | 7% |
| Make no difference | 15% | 16% | 11% | 10% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 14% | 8% | 13% |
42% believe that a minority Government supported by the independents will result in a worse Government for Australia and 30% think it will be a better Government. Liberal/National voters are more likely to think it would be a worse Government (62%) while 47% of Greens voters think it would be a better Government. Labor voters are split – 37% better/33% worse.
Older voters are most likely to think it would be a worse Government – of those aged 55+, 47% say worse and 28% better. Comments »
Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?
| Total likely | 70% |
| Total unlikely | 16% |
| Very likely | 27% |
| Quite likely | 43% |
| Not very likely | 13% |
| Not at all likely | 3% |
| Don’t know | 14% |
70% of respondents think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and only 16% think it is unlikely.
A majority of all voters types believe it is likely. Comments »
6
Need for a New Election
Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 52% | 48% | 65% | 45% |
| No | 33% | 38% | 25% | 35% |
| Don’t know | 15% | 14% | 10% | 20% |
52% think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 33% disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (65%) although all voter types are more likely to support another election than oppose it. Women (yes 53%/no 29%) are more likely to support another election than men (50%/38%). Comments »
Q. And if Australia had another Federal election in the next 12 months, which party do you expect would win that election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Labor | 35% | 76% | 2% | 48% |
| Liberal/National | 39% | 4% | 83% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 20% | 15% | 41% |
Expectations about which party would win another election are divided – and closely follow party preferences. 39% think the Coalition would win and 35% think Labor would win. Comments »
Q. If another election was held in the next 12 months would you vote for the same party or might you change your vote?
| Total | Voted Labor | Voted Lib/Nat | Voted Greens | |
| Vote for the same party | 72% | 76% | 84% | 62% |
| Might change my vote | 16% | 16% | 11% | 28% |
| Definitely change my vote | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 7% | 4% | 8% |
72% say they would vote for the same party if another election was held and 17% think they may change their vote. Liberal/National voters are least likely to change their vote (13%), while Greens voters are most likely (29%). 22% of voters aged under 35 said they may change their vote compared to only 13% of those aged 55+. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
54+/- 0
Subscribe Now
Subscribe to receive the Essential Report
in your email each week