Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,896 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 46% | 44% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 47% | 48% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 34% | 34% | 34% | 35% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 55% | 54% | 55% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Q. Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know/Not applicable | |
| The Australian economy | 48% | 16% | 29% | 35% | 3% | 26% | 32% | 28% | 7% | 3% |
| Your personal financial situation | 39% | 20% | 33% | 27% | 4% | 29% | 38% | 20% | 7% | 2% |
| Your workplace * | 47% | 16% | 45% | 20% | 6% | 39% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 2% |
| You and your family overall | 51% | 14% | 52% | 16% | 10% | 42% | 30% | 12% | 4% | 2% |
* based on working people
Overall, respondents were optimistic that 2012 would be a good year for themselves overall (52%) and their workplace (45%). They tended to be less optimistic about their financial situation (33% good/27% bad) and somewhat pessimistic about the Australian economy (29%/35%).
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were much less optimistic about the Australian economy (48% good last year compared to 29% good this year) and also rather less optimistic about their own financial situation (39%/20% last year compared to 33%/27% this year).
When compared with last week’s questions on perceptions of 2011, these figures suggest that respondents expect 2012 to be better than 2011 for themselves and their family (net +36% for next year compared to net +24% for this year), a little better for their workplace (+25% next year, +20% last year) and their own financial situation (+6% next year, -2% this year). The Australian economy is expected to be a little worse in 2012 (-6% next year compared to +2% last year).
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 28% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 12% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 16% | 49% | 3% | 13% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 17% | 37% | 2% | 15% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).
Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).
19
2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
19
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
Q. How do you think the Australian economy is performing in comparison to other developed countries?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total better | 73% | 84% | 72% | 80% |
| Total worse | 7% | 3% | 8% | 1% |
| A lot better | 27% | 44% | 19% | 32% |
| A little better | 46% | 40% | 53% | 48% |
| About the same | 16% | 13% | 16% | 12% |
| A little worse | 5% | 2% | 5% | 1% |
| A lot worse | 2% | 1% | 3% | - |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 3% | 6% |
If ‘a lot better’ or ‘a little better’ –
Q. How much credit do the following deserve for the current performance of Australia’s economy?
| A lot | Some | A little | None | Don’t know | |
| The Federal Labor Government | 18% | 31% | 23% | 21% | 6% |
| The previous Coalition Government | 21% | 31% | 26% | 15% | 6% |
| The booming resources sector | 47% | 31% | 12% | 3% | 7% |
| The Reserve Bank | 6% | 42% | 29% | 13% | 9% |
73% think that the Australian economy is performing better than other developed countries and only 7% think it is performing worse.
Respondents give most credit for the performance of the economy to the booming resources sector (78% a lot or some credit). They give similar credit to the Labor Government (49%) and the previous Coalition Government (52%).
19
Federal Election
Q. Do you expect that an early Federal election will be held in 2012?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 32% | 24% | 42% | 26% |
| No | 42% | 55% | 37% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 21% | 21% | 23% |
Respondents were more likely to think there will not be a Federal election next year – 32% expect there will be an election and 42% think there will not.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,921 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 45% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
12
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has declined a little since last month. 34% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.
73% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.
12
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.
65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.
12
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 81% | 5% | 74% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 5% | 72% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 23% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/38% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/32%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 Feb 2012
551
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