Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,858
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 44% |
| Labor | 39% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Labor | 51% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
29
Same Sex Marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should be allowed to marry | 50% | 60% | 38% | 82% |
| Should not be allowed to marry | 37% | 28% | 50% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 12% | 12% | 4% |
50% think people of the same sex be allowed to marry and 37% think they should not be allowed to marry.
Strongest support for same sex marriage is shown by Greens voters (82%), Labor voters (60%), females (63%) and those aged 25-44 (61%).
50% of Coalition voters and 68% of those aged 65+ oppose same sex marriage.
By religion, Catholics (58%) and those with no religion (63%) are more likely to support same sex marriage. Anglicans are divided (47% support, 43% oppose) and other Christians are strongly opposed (68%).
Of those who think the issue is important, 60% think same sex marriage should be allowed and 37% think it should not be allowed.
Q. Compared to other issues that are often raised in politics – like the economy, healthcare, immigration, etc - how important to you personally is the issue of whether people of the same sex should be allowed to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total important | 37% | 37% | 32% | 56% |
| Total not important | 60% | 60% | 66% | 42% |
| Very important | 15% | 16% | 13% | 24% |
| Quite important | 22% | 21% | 19% | 32% |
| Not so important | 31% | 33% | 30% | 23% |
| Not at all important | 29% | 27% | 36% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 2% |
37% believe the same sex marriage is an important issue and 60% think it is not important. A majority of Greens voters (56%) think it is important.
41% of those who support same sex marriage think the issue is important and 36% of those opposed think it important.
Q. From what you understand which party has the policy on same sex marriage which is closest to your own view of the issue?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Labor Party | 13% | 29% | 2% | 1% |
| Liberal Party | 21% | 5% | 44% | 3% |
| Greens | 20% | 19% | 13% | 71% |
| Don’t know | 46% | 47% | 41% | 24% |
21% prefer the Liberal Party policy on same sex marriage, 20% prefer the Greens and 13% Labor.
Opinions generally follow party preference although only 29% of Labor voters prefer the Labor policy and 19% prefer the Greens.
Those with no religion are more likely to prefer the Greens policy (29%) while 30% of Anglicans and 32% of other Christians prefer the Liberal policy.
29
Importance of NBN
Q. The Federal Government plans to build a National Broadband Network over the next few years. How important do you think it is for Australia to build a National Broadband Network?
| Total
Nov 10 |
Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Nov 09 | ||
| Total important | 69% | 87% | 54% | 84% | 65% | |
| Total not important | 25% | 9% | 42% | 12% | 26% | |
| Very Important | 35% | 55% | 17% | 55% | 30% | |
| Quite Important | 34% | 32% | 37% | 29% | 35% | |
| Not so important | 14% | 6% | 21% | 10% | 20% | |
| Not at all important | 11% | 3% | 21% | 2% | 6% | |
| Don’t know | 6% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 8% |
69% think that it is important for Australia to build a National Broadband Network and 25% think it is not important. This represents an increase in support (net +5%) for the NBN since this question was last asked in November 2009.
Labor (87%) and Greens voters (84%) and more likely to think the NBN is important. A majority of Liberal/National voters (54%) think it is important although a sizable minority (42%) think it is not important.
A majority of all age groups believe the NBN is important, although support tends to decrease with increasing age – of those aged 65+, 54% think it is important and 45% not important.
29
Benefit of NBN
Q. Thinking about the Government’s plan to build a national broadband network, how much benefit will a national broadband network be to-
| Total benefit | Great
benefit |
Some benefit | Little benefit | Don’t know | Total benefit
April 09 |
||
| Australian businesses | 84% | 55% | 29% | 8% | 8% | 80% | |
| Schools | 78% | 48% | 30% | 14% | 8% | na | |
| The general public overall | 78% | 44% | 34% | 15% | 8% | 76% | |
| Children | 72% | 39% | 33% | 19% | 9% | na | |
| The Australian economy | 71% | 39% | 32% | 18% | 11% | 65% | |
| You personally | 65% | 33% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 66% | |
| The economy of your local community | 65% | 32% | 33% | 24% | 12% | na |
The NBN is thought to be of most benefit to Australian business (84%), schools (78%) and the general public overall (78%). Since this question was last asked in April 2009, perceptions of benefit have increased for Australian business (+4%) and the Australian economy (+6%).
65% think they will personally benefit from the NBN. Those most likely to think they will benefit personally are aged under 35 (74%) Labor voters (83%), Greens voters (80%) and full-time workers (71%).
29
Christmas Spending
Q. And now about Christmas spending – compared to last year, do you expect to be spending more on gifts at Christmas, less or much the same?
| Dec 08 | Dec 09 | Nov 10 | |
| Will spend more | 3% | 11% | 10% |
| Will be spending less | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Spend much the same | 55% | 47% | 48% |
| Don’t know | 5% | 4% | 5% |
Views about spending on gifts at Christmas remain much the same as last year. 10% say they will spend more, 38% spend less and 48% much the same.
16% of those aged under 35 say they will spend more, 46% of those aged 35-44 will spend less and 59% of those aged 55+ will spend much the same. There is no significant relationship between changes in spending and income.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,869
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 38% |
| Greens | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Labor | 52% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
22
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% |
43% (down 2%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 38% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +8 to +5.
87% of Labor voters approve and 4% disapprove.
By gender – men 39% approve/44% disapprove, women 47% approve/33% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of +4 to -5 while women have changed from +10 to +14.
22
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | |
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 40% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 40% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 23% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% |
40% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 40% (down 5%) disapprove – a shift from a net rating from -6 to level.
78% of Coalition voters approve and 12% disapprove.
By gender – men 46% approve/38% disapprove, women 35% approve/43% disapprove. Men have shifted from a net rating of -7 to +8 while women have changed from -4 to -8.
22
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 22 Nov 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 94% | 6% | 76% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 1% | 78% | 3% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 5% | 17% | 21% | 23% |
45% (down 4%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a closing of the gap from 16% to 11% since last month’s figures.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 41%/40% and women 49%/28%.
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 Feb 2012
551
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