Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,873
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 36% | 40% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 43% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| Labor | 42% | 42% | 41% | 40% | 41% |
| Greens | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 10% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 49% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Labor | 54% | 51% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
25
War in Afghanistan
Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –
| Total
25 Oct 10 |
Labor | Liberal | Greens | 30 March 09 | 21 June 10 | 11 Oct 10 | ||
| Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan |
10% |
10% |
12% |
10% |
14% |
7% |
13% |
|
| Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan |
30% |
31% |
34% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
24% |
|
| Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan | 47% | 49% | 45% | 55% | 50% | 61% | 49% | |
| Don’t know | 14% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 14% |
47% say Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 30% say we should keep the same number and 10% say we should increase troop numbers. The support for keeping the same number of troops in Afghanistan has increased by 6% since previous surveys.
Support for withdrawal is highest among Greens voters (55%) and those on higher incomes (54% of those earning over $1,600 per week).
Support for maintaining or increasing troop numbers is highest among Liberal/National voters (46%), men (46%) and those aged 55+ (48%).
Q. Which leader and party would you trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan?
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 33% |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 32% |
| Bob Brown and the Greens | 7% |
| Don’t know | 28% |
Respondents were split over which leader and party they would trust most to handle our involvement in the war in Afghanistan. 33% prefer Julia Gillard and the Labor Party and 32% prefer Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party.
Those aged 55+ prefer the Liberal Party over the Labor Party 40% to 34%.
Q. Do you agree or disagree that the amount of water currently taken from the Murray-Darling river system for irrigation should be reduced?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total agree | 49% | 51% | 47% | 62% |
| Total disagree | 20% | 17% | 30% | 14% |
| Strongly agree | 19% | 21% | 16% | 33% |
| Agree | 30% | 30% | 31% | 29% |
| Disagree | 13% | 11% | 18% | 6% |
| Strongly disagree | 7% | 6% | 12% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 31% | 32% | 23% | 23% |
49% agree that the amount of water currently taken from the Murray-Darling river system for irrigation should be reduced and 20% disagree – 31% could not give an opinion. All demographic groups show higher agreement than disagreement.
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Time is running out and strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact | 47% | 52% | 42% | 74% |
| Protecting the economic well being of local communities and jobs must be the first priority in any decisions made about the Murray Darling river system | 31% | 28% | 42% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 20% | 16% | 13% |
47% agreed that “strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact “ while 31% agreed more with the statement “protecting the economic well being of local communities and jobs must be the first priority”.
A majority of Labor (52%) and Greens voters (74%) agreed that “strong action must be taken to restore the health of the Murray Darling river system even if it means some job losses or other economic impact” while Liberal/National voters were split (42%/42)%.
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Government’s decision to move children and their families out of immigration detention centres and allow them to live in the community while their cases are being processed?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 33% | 42% | 24% | 63% |
| Total disapprove | 53% | 45% | 67% | 28% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 15% | 4% | 39% |
| Approve | 22% | 27% | 20% | 24% |
| Disapprove | 24% | 22% | 29% | 12% |
| Strongly disapprove | 29% | 23% | 38% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 13% | 9% | 8% |
53% disapproved the Federal Government’s decision to move children and their families out of immigration detention centres and allow them to live in the community while their cases are being processed and 33% approved.
63% of Greens voters approved, 67% of Liberal/National voters disapproved and Labor voters were split 42% approve/45% disapprove.
By gender – men 38% approve/50% disapprove, women 28% approve/57% disapprove.
25
Asylum Seekers
Q. Do you think the Federal Labor Government is too tough or too soft on asylum seekers or is it taking the right approach?
| This week | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 12 July 10 | 4 April 10 | ||
| Too tough | 7% | 9% | 3% | 28% | 10% | 6% | |
| Too soft | 63% | 49% | 83% | 33% | 56% | 65% | |
| Taking the right approach | 18% | 31% | 7% | 30% | 21% | 18% | |
| Don’t know | 12% | 10% | 7% | 9% | 13% | 11% |
63% of respondents believe that the Federal Labor Government is too soft on asylum seekers (up 7% since the last survey in July), 7% think they are too tough and 18% think they are taking the right approach.
Only 31% of Labor voters and 30% of Greens voters think the Government is taking the right approach.
Q. Which party would you trust most to handle the issue of asylum seekers?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| The Labor Party | 25% | 57% | 2% | 38% |
| The Liberal Party | 37% | 8% | 80% | 8% |
| No difference | 25% | 27% | 11% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
37% of respondents trust the Liberal Party most to handle the asylum seeker issue and 25% trust the Labor Party most.
57% of Labor voters trust the Labor Party most and 80% of Liberal/National voters trust the Liberal Party most. 46% of Greens voters and 55% of other voters think there is no difference between the Labor and Liberal Parties on the issue.
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,901
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 37% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 45% | 44% | 44% | 44% |
| Labor | 42% | 40% | 42% | 41% | 40% |
| Greens | 11% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
18
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% | 10% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% | 20% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% | 17% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% | 18% |
45% approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove – showing no change from last months ratings.
89% of Labor voters approve and 3% disapprove.
By gender – men 45% approve/41% disapprove, women 45% approve/35% disapprove. Comments »
18
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan | 22 Feb | 29 Mar | 3 May | 31 May | 5 Jul | 2 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | |
| Total approve | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 37% | 38% | 41% | 43% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 37% | 45% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% |
| Approve | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 29% | 30% | 32% | 31% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 22% | 21% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 22% | 16% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 19% | 17% |
39% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 45% (up 8%) disapprove – a shift from a net rating of +6% to -6%.
74% (down 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (up 6%) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/47% disapprove, women 37% approve/41% disapprove. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 Feb 2012
551
Subscribe Now
Subscribe to receive the Essential Report
in your email each week