Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2246 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 37% | 37% | 41% | 42% | 41% |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 39% | 44% | 45% | 44% |
| Labor | 42% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
| Greens | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 47% | 46% | 49% | 50% | 50% |
| Labor | 53% | 54% | 51% | 50% | 50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* These results do not include the special ER pre-election poll. Comments »
31
When Voting Decision Made
Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in last week’s Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| More than 4 weeks before the election | 55% | 60% | 65% | 38% |
| 2-4 weeks before the election | 15% | 15% | 16% | 19% |
| In the last week before the election | 9% | 8% | 9% | 15% |
| The day before the election | 3% | 4% | 1% | 5% |
| The day of the election but before I went to vote | 5% | 4% | 4% | 9% |
| When I got to the polling booth | 9% | 6% | 4% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% |
More than half the respondents had decided their vote more than 4 weeks before the election. 27% decided during the election campaign before polling day and 14% only decided on polling day (9% when they got to the polling booth). Greens voters were most likely to delay making their decision, with 21% saying they only decided on the day of the election. 25% of those who voted for independents or other parties only decided when they got to the polling booth.
Older voters decided earlier than younger voters – 67% of those aged 55+ decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 43% of under 35’s. 19% of under 35’s decided on the day of the election compared to only 6% of aged 55+. Comments »
31
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Ag 10 | 30 Aug | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10 | ||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 46% | 94% | 3% | 66% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 1% | 83% | 8% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 4% | 14% | 26% | 23% |
46% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to previous poll.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 83% to 3% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 66% to 8%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/41% and women 48%/32%. Comments »
All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.
However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.
Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.
This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor | 38.5% | 36.2% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Coalition | 43.5% | 43.2% | 41.5% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Greens | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Others | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor 2PP | 50.7% | 50.2% | 52% | 52 | 51% | 51% |
| Difference | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August - to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
| First preference
|
2PP | |
| Liberal | 40% | |
| National | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43% | 49% |
| Labor | 38% | 51% |
| Greens | 12% | |
| Family First | 2% | |
| Other/Independent | 5% |
NB. The 5% of respondents who selected ‘don’t know’ are not included in these results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
20
Main reason for vote
Q. Which one of the following is the main reason why you will vote for that party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Better at handling Australia’s economy | 22% | 14% | 41% | 2% |
| They are more likely to represent the interests of all Australians | 14% | 16% | 11% | 17% |
| Better at looking after the interests people like me | 13% | 17% | 10% | 16% |
| More trustworthy than the other parties | 9% | 7% | 5% | 22% |
| They are more capable of governing effectively than the other parties | 9% | 5% | 17% | 2% |
| They have a better leader | 8% | 16% | 4% | 2% |
| I always vote for the same party | 6% | 9% | 5% | 2% |
| They have better policies on things like education and health | 5% | 9% | 3% | 3% |
| They have better policies on things like environment and climate change | 3% | * | - | 27% |
| They have better policies on things like industrial relations and supporting Australian workers | 2% | 4% | * | - |
| They have better policies on things like national security and immigration | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| No reason | 7% | 2% | 2% | 5% |
Main reasons for voting Labor are looking after interests of people like me, better leader and representing the interests of all Australians. Main reasons for voting for the Coalition are handling the economy and more capable of governing. Greens voters rate policies on the environment and climate change and trustworthiness most important. Comments »
20
Firmness of vote
Q. How firm is your vote?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very firm | 56% | 61% | 68% | 46% |
| Pretty firm but I might change my mind | 31% | 35% | 27% | 45% |
| Might consider another party and leader closer to the election | 9% | 4% | 5% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 4% | * | - | - |
The Greens vote is still relatively soft compared to Labor and Coalition votes. 68% of Coalition voters say their vote is “very firm” compared to 61% of Labor voters and 46% of Greens voters. Comments »
20
Opinion of Julia Gillard
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 21% | 42% | 8% | 22% | 19% | |
| Total gone down | 40% | 13% | 67% | 28% | 42% | |
| Gone up a lot | 6% | 16% | * | 3% | 6% | |
| Gone up a little | 15% | 26% | 8% | 19% | 13% | |
| Stayed the same | 35% | 44% | 23% | 48% | 32% | |
| Gone down a little | 18% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 20% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 1% | 41% | 13% | 22% | |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.
This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.
By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »
20
Opinion of Tony Abbott
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 26% | 6% | 55% | 5% | 27% | |
| Total gone down | 37% | 61% | 9% | 57% | 27% | |
| Gone up a lot | 8% | 1% | 18% | - | 8% | |
| Gone up a little | 18% | 5% | 37% | 5% | 19% | |
| Stayed the same | 34% | 32% | 37% | 37% | 38% | |
| Gone down a little | 15% | 22% | 7% | 19% | 11% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 39% | 2% | 38% | 16% | |
| Don’t know | 3% | 1% | * | 1% | 8% |
26% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 37% say it has gone down.
This is a decline from their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 27% up and 27% down.
By gender – men 27% up/37% down and women 25% up/38% down. Comments »
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August - to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | - | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August - to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
2,160 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 41% |
| National | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 39% | 39% | 42% | 44% |
| Labor | 44% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 39% |
| Greens | 10% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 10% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 45% | 45% | 46% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 55% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
54+/- 0
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