Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
1,747 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 34% | 36% | 36% | 37% | 37% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 37% | 39% | 38% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 46% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 41% |
| Greens | 8% | 9% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 56% | 54% | 55% | 55% | 55% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
26
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 29 Mar 10 | 31 May 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 71% | 62% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% |
| Total disapprove | 21% | 29% | 23% | 32% | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% |
| Strongly approve | 21% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% |
| Approve | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% |
| Disapprove | 14% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% |
| Strongly disapprove | 7% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% |
49% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 33% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 3% and disapproval increased by 3%. 94% of Labor voters approve and only 2% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 18% approve and 70% disapprove.
By gender – men 51% approve/36% disapprove and women 49% approve/30% disapprove. Comments »
26
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Malcolm Turnbull | Tony Abbott | ||||||||||
| 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 25% | 34% | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 55% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 39% | 47% | 44% | 46% |
| Strongly approve | 2% | 7% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 23% | 27% | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 33% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 31% | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 19% |
35% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 46% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 5% and disapproval increased by 2%. 78% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 15% approve and 74% disapprove.
There were no substantial differences by gender – men 37% approve/48% disapprove and women 33% approve/44% disapprove. Comments »
26
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 94% | 9% | 74% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 2% | 69% | 6% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 20% | 23% |
51% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 26% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight widening of the gap between the two (from 23% to 25%) since polled last week.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 69% to 9% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 6%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 50%/29% and women 51%/23%. Comments »
Q. On Sunday night the leaders debate between Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott will be televised. Do you plan to watch the leaders’ debate?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| Definitely watch | 14% | 19% | 16% | 12% | 3% | 4% |
| Probably watch | 30% | 35% | 33% | 31% | 24% | 13% |
| Probably won’t watch | 21% | 20% | 23% | 29% | 25% | 13% |
| Definitely won’t watch | 26% | 16% | 25% | 25% | 44% | 46% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 25% |
44% said they would definitely or probably watch the leaders’ debate. 54% of Labor voters were likely to watch, compared to 49% of Liberal/National voters and 43% of Greens voters. Of those who could not say who they would vote for, only 17% said they would definitely or probably watch the debate.
Older respondents were more likely to watch – 52% of those aged 55+ compared to 33% of those aged under 35. Comments »
26
Interest in Federal Election
Q. How interested are you in this federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| More than previous elections | 17% | 18% | 23% | 15% | 16% | 5% |
| About the same | 66% | 76% | 68% | 67% | 52% | 42% |
| Less than previous elections | 11% | 5% | 9% | 13% | 32% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 5% | 1% | * | 4% | - | 31% |
66% said that they had about the same interest in this election as previous elections – 17% had more interest and 11% less interest. Liberal voters were more interested (23% more) than Labor (18% more) and Greens voters (15% more).
Women (19%more/9% less) were somewhat more interested than men (16% more/13% less). Comments »
26
Voting Decision
Q. When do you think you will make your decision about which party to vote for?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Vote other or indep. | Don’t know/ refused vote | |
| Already decided | 51% | 61% | 65% | 53% | 32% | 3% |
| Over the next few weeks during the campaign | 23% | 26% | 22% | 24% | 23% | 18% |
| At the end of the campaign before election day | 9% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 14% |
| On election day | 10% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 26% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 2% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 36% |
| Total | Aged
18-34 |
Aged
35-44 |
Aged
45-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Already decided | 51% | 38% | 44% | 53% | 66% |
| Over the next few weeks during the campaign | 23% | 28% | 25% | 20% | 18% |
| At the end of the campaign before election day | 9% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 8% |
| On election day | 10% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
51% of respondents said they had already decided which party to vote for and a further 32% said they would decide before election day – 10% will make their decision on election day. 61% of Labor voters and 65% of Liberal voters say they have already decided compared to 53% of Greens voters.
Younger voters are less likely to have decided which party to vote for – only 38% of under 35’s have already decided, 36% will decide before election day, 10% on election day and 16% do not know when they will decide. Comments »
26
Best Leader of Liberal Party
Q. Do you think that if Peter Costello had stayed in Parliament, he would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 45% | 46% | 50% | 64% |
| No | 26% | 32% | 25% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 22% | 25% | 17% |
45% of respondents think Peter Costello (had he stayed in parliament) would make a better leader of the Liberal Party than Tony Abbott. Preference for Peter Costello was strongest among Liberal/National voters – 50% Costello/25% Abbott. The highest level of support for Tony Abbott came from Labor voters (32%). Comments »
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,875 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 37% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 39% |
| Labor | 45% | 38% | 42% | 41% | 41% |
| Greens | 8% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 56% | 52% | 54% | 55% | 55% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
19
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 29 Mar 10 | 31 May 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 71% | 62% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% |
| Total disapprove | 21% | 29% | 23% | 32% | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% |
| Strongly approve | 21% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% |
| Approve | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% |
| Disapprove | 14% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% |
| Strongly disapprove | 7% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% |
52% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 30% disapprove. Since this question was asked 2 weeks ago, approval has increased by 4% and disapproval by 3% – “don’t know” has dropped from 26% to 18%. 89% of Labor voters approve and only 2% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 25% approve and 64% disapprove.
There were substantial differences by gender – men 50% approve/36% disapprove and women 54% approve/25% disapprove.
19
Approval of Tony Abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Malcolm Turnbull | Tony Abbott | |||||||||
| 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | |
| Total approve | 25% | 34% | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 37% | 40% |
| Total disapprove | 55% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 39% | 47% | 44% |
| Strongly approve | 2% | 7% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 23% | 27% | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 33% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 23% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 31% | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 16% |
40% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 44% disapprove. Since this question was asked 2 weeks ago, approval has increased by 3% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 82% of Liberal/National voters approve and 10% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 19% approve and 69% disapprove.
There were some differences by gender – men 45% approve/43% disapprove and women 35% approve/46% disapprove. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
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