Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,866 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 31% | 36% | 41% | 39% | 39% |
| National | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 35% | 39% | 43% | 41% | 41% |
| Labor | 47% | 40% | 38% | 40% | 39% |
| Greens | 8% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| Family First | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 42% | 47% | 50% | 48% | 49% |
| Labor | 58% | 53% | 50% | 52% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | |
| Strongly approve | 21% | 14% | 15% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 7% |
| Approve | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 47% | 44% | 41% | 41% | 38% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 14% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 20% | 19% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 7% | 9% | 6% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 10% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Total approve | 71% | 62% | 66% | 56% | 57% | 55% | 52% | 53% | 46% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 21% | 29% | 23% | 35% | 32% | 33% | 37% | 36% | 42% | 47% |
Kevin Rudd’s net approval rating has fallen to a net negative for the first time since he became Prime Minister. 41% approve (down 5%) of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister and 47% disapprove (up 5%).
89% of Labor voters approve and 87% of Liberal/National voters disapprove. Greens voters are split 48% approve/45% disapprove.
Younger people are more likely to approve of Kevin Rudd’s performance than older people. Those aged under 35 were net positive (45% approve/33% disapprove) and those aged 55+ strongly negative (31% approve/64% disapprove). Comments »
Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Malcolm Turnbull | Tony Abbott | |||||||||
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | |
| Strongly approve | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 7% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% |
| Approve | 25% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 27% | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 31% | 31% | 35% | 33% | 18% | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 26% | 18% | 22% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 19% | 21% | 19% | 31% | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% |
| Total approve | 28% | 24% | 27% | 25% | 34% | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 48% | 57% | 53% | 55% | 36% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen back close to the level of the March poll – which was his lowest recorded. 35% approve (down 4%) of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% disapprove (up 7%).
72% of Liberal/National voters approve and 17% disapprove. 77% of Labor voters disapprove and 15% approve.
The only group showing net approval was people aged 65+ (52% approve/42% disapprove).
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
| Total likely | 58% |
| Total unlikely | 21% |
| Very likely | 28% |
| Quite likely | 30% |
| Not very likely | 18% |
| Not at all likely | 3% |
| Don’t know | 20% |
58% believe it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election – 21% think it is unlikely.
83% of Labor voters and 42% of Liberal/National voters think it is likely – 44% of Liberal/National voters think it is unlikely.
64% of workers think it is likely and 17% unlikely. Comments »
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
| Very concerned | 28% |
| Quite concerned | 17% |
| A little concerned | 20% |
| Not concerned | 24% |
| Don’t know | 11% |
Overall, 45% were very or quite concerned about the reintroduction of WorkChoices or similar laws and 44% either a little or not concerned. 77% of Labor voters were concerned compared to 20% of Liberal/National voters. 50% of full-time workers were very/quite concerned and 39% a little or not concerned.
Q. The Opposition Leader Tony Abbot has indicated he would remove the unfair dismissal laws and he would re-institute AWA Individual contracts. How concerned are you about this?
| Very concerned | Quite concerned | A little concerned | Not concerned | Don’t know | |
| Removal of unfair dismissal rights | 36% | 17% | 20% | 16% | 11% |
| Re-institution of AWA individual contracts | 27% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 14% |
53% were very/quite concerned about the removal of unfair dismissal rights and 44% very/quite concerned about re-institution of individual contracts. 77% of Labor voters and 24% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about removal of unfair dismissal rights. 70% of Labor voters and 16% of Liberal/National voters were concerned about re-institution of individual contracts. There were no substantial differences across demographic groups. Comments »
31
Tony Abbot Vs Union Position
Q. Tony Abbott says that by removing unfair dismissal laws and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts he is not bringing back Workchoices but making sure our IR system promotes workplace flexibility. The unions say that taking away unfair dismissal rights and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts IS bringing back two of the main pillars of WorkChoices and shows the Liberals are determined to make the laws favour companies at the expense of ordinary workers. Whose view is closest to your own?
| Tony Abbott | 24% |
| The unions | 43% |
| Don’t know | 33% |
24% agreed more with Tony Abbott’s position on removing unfair dismissal laws and re-instituting AWA Individual contracts and 43% agreed more with the unions’ position that the Liberals are determined to make the laws favour companies at the expense of ordinary workers.
69% of Labor voters support the unions’ position and 56% of Liberal/National voters support Tony Abbott’s position.
51% of those aged 35-54 support the unions’ position and 21% support Tony Abbott’s position. Comments »
Q. If it turned out the Coalition was planning to reintroduce some of the Howard Government’s IR laws, like ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts, would that make you more likely or less likely to vote for them in the upcoming federal election?
| Total more likely | 14% |
| Total less likely | 46% |
| Much more likely | 6% |
| Somewhat more likely | 8% |
| Somewhat less likely | 14% |
| Much less likely | 32% |
| Make no difference | 25% |
| Don’t know | 15% |
46% said that they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition if they were planning to reintroduce some of the Howard Government’s IR laws – 14% said they would be more likely.
Among Labor voters, 69% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 7% more likely and 16% make no difference.
Among Coalition voters, 20% said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 30% more likely and 42% make no difference.
51% of those aged 35-54 said they would be less likely to vote for the Coalition, 11% more likely and 26% make no difference. Comments »
Q. There have been some recent situations where a politician has resigned from their position or their party after some aspects of their sexual behaviour were made public by the media. Is it appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s private life?
| Yes, in all circumstances | 12% |
| Yes, in some circumstances | 42% |
| No, not at all | 38% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
A majority (54%) believe it is appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s personal life in some or all circumstances. 12% think details should be revealed in all circumstances and 42% in some circumstances. 38% say details of a political figure’s personal life should not be revealed at all. 64% of Liberal/National voters and 50% of Labor voters approved revealing details of political figure’s personal life in some or all circumstances. Greens voters were split 50% some/all, 50% not at all. There were no substantial demographic differences. Comments »
If answered “in some circumstances” –
Q. Is it appropriate for the media to reveal details of a political figure’s private life in any of the following circumstances?
| Yes | No | Don’t know | |
| Where there is a public interest due to impact on the politician’s work or taxpayers’ resources | 92% | 5% | 3% |
| Where the politician has acted in a way clearly at odds with their publicly expressed views | 88% | 8% | 4% |
| Where a politician’s personal choices are unusual or not considered mainstream | 20% | 67% | 14% |
Sample = 457
The majority of those who approved revealing details in some circumstances agreed that details could be revealed where there is a public interest due to impact on the politician’s work or taxpayers’ resources (92%) or where the politician has acted in a way clearly at odds with their publicly expressed views (88%). However, revealing details where a politician’s personal choices are unusual or not considered mainstream was only acceptable to 20%. Comments »
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,911 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 36% | 41% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 39% | 43% | 41% |
| Labor | 45% | 42% | 38% | 40% |
| Greens | 7% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
| Family First | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 45% | 46% | 50% | 48% |
| Labor | 55% | 54% | 50% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Opinion of Kevin Rudd an the Labor Party
Q. Would you say that your view of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government has become more or less favourable in recent weeks?
| Total more favourable | 11% |
| Total less favourable | 58% |
| Much more favourable | 3% |
| A little more favourable | 8% |
| A little less favourable | 25% |
| Much less favourable | 33% |
| No change | 26% |
| Don’t know | 3% |
58% of respondents said their view of Kevin Rudd and the Labor Government had become less favourable over recent weeks and 11% said they had become more favourable.
22% of Labor voters said they had become more favourable and 31% less favourable. Coalition voters split 4% more favourable/81% less favourable and Greens voters 23% more favourable/58% less favourable.
47% of those aged under 35 were less favourable compared to 66% of those aged 45+. Comments »
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 30 Jan 2012
54+/- 0
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